Intrenion

Pattern: Timing dependence

Career progression depends heavily on being present during favorable organizational phases.

Situation

  1. In this condition, employees with similar qualifications and performance records experience significantly different promotion speeds depending on when they joined the organization.
  2. In this condition, promotion activity increases during periods of organizational growth, restructuring, or expansion.
  3. In this condition, advancement opportunities decline or freeze during periods of financial constraint or structural stability.
  4. In this condition, individuals hired shortly before expansion phases often accumulate titles and scope more rapidly than earlier or later cohorts.
  5. In this condition, high performers in stagnant phases receive positive evaluations without corresponding changes in role level or authority.
  6. In this condition, tenure-to-promotion varies substantially across hiring cohorts within the same organization.
  7. In this condition, official career frameworks present progression as performance-based, while actual advancement frequency fluctuates with organizational phase.

Assessment

  1. This occurs because role availability is driven by headcount growth and structural change rather than by a steady flow of vacancies tied to individual readiness.
  2. This occurs because expansion phases create new reporting lines and budget allocations that require rapid internal staffing.
  3. This occurs because contraction or stability phases increase risk aversion and tighten approval thresholds for promotions and new roles.
  4. This occurs because performance management systems evaluate individuals but do not control the number of available promotable positions at any given time.
  5. This occurs because senior leaders prioritize operational continuity and speed during favorable phases, favoring incumbents who are immediately deployable.
  6. This occurs because cohort entry timing determines exposure to inflection points such as funding events, acquisitions, or strategic pivots.
  7. This occurs because formal merit criteria operate within structural capacity limits that expand or contract independently of individual capability.

Consequence

  1. Without a decision, disparities in advancement between hiring cohorts remain structurally embedded and continue to widen over time.
  2. Without a decision, individuals in stagnant phases experience prolonged role compression despite sustained performance levels.
  3. Without a decision, organizational narratives continue attributing advancement differences to merit rather than timing.
  4. Without a decision, retention patterns fluctuate according to macro phase rather than individual engagement or capability.
  5. Without a decision, long-term career planning for individuals remains highly sensitive to organizational cycle volatility.

Decisions

  1. We decide to set a fixed personal time limit of 24 months for waiting on internal promotion during a stagnant phase because this gives us a clear exit trigger tied to structural reality instead of continuing to invest effort indefinitely in the hope that timing will shift, and accept that we may leave shortly before an unexpected expansion phase.
  2. We decide to prioritize building externally marketable skills and documented outcomes over optimizing for internal visibility because this gives us bargaining power across organizational cycles instead of focusing on internal sponsorship within a phase that may not produce openings, and accept that we may receive fewer short-term internal recognition signals.
  3. We decide to evaluate job offers and internal opportunities based primarily on the organization’s growth trajectory rather than title or immediate compensation because this gives us a better position in a favorable structural phase instead of selecting roles solely for present status within a stagnant system, and accept that we may enter less prestigious roles during uncertain expansions.

Direct formulations

  1. I will leave this organization after 24 months without promotion, regardless of assurances about future openings.
  2. I will spend my development time on skills and deliverables that are valuable outside this organization, even if that reduces my visibility with internal sponsors.
  3. I will choose roles based on the company’s growth phase rather than title or pay, even if that means accepting a lower-status position in the short term.