Intrenion

Intrenion Doctrine

The Dictator’s Handbook (Bruce Bueno de Mesquita et al.)

Table of Contents

Audio Discussion

Episode 1

Practice 1: Identify the people who decide who holds power

Problem
Political outcomes are often determined by a small group rather than the public.

Action
Identify the people whose support is necessary to gain and keep power.

Outcome
Political decisions become easier to understand and predict.

Chapter: The Rules of Politics

Practice 2: Secure key supporters before seeking power

Problem
People rarely gain power without enough backing from influential supporters.

Action
Build a coalition of supporters before challenging existing leaders.

Outcome
Your chances of gaining power increase.

Chapter: Coming to Power

Practice 3: Keep essential supporters loyal through rewards

Problem
Leaders lose power when important supporters switch their allegiance.

Action
Provide valuable benefits to the supporters whose backing keeps you in power.

Outcome
Political stability strengthens.

Chapter: Staying in Power

Practice 4: Direct resources toward politically important supporters

Problem
Resources are usually too limited to satisfy everyone.

Action
Concentrate valuable benefits on the supporters most important to your survival.

Outcome
Support from key allies becomes more secure.

Chapter: Steal from the Poor, Give to the Rich

Episode 2

Practice 5: Turn resources into political support

Problem
Resources alone do not protect a leader’s position.

Action
Use available resources to maintain the loyalty of essential supporters.

Outcome
Your hold on power becomes stronger.

Chapter: Getting and Spending

Practice 6: Make access to benefits depend on loyalty

Problem
Supporters may defect when rewards are easy to obtain elsewhere.

Action
Provide benefits that supporters can keep only by remaining loyal.

Outcome
Defections become less likely.

Chapter: If Corruption Empowers, Then Absolute Corruption Empowers Absolutely

Practice 7: Evaluate aid by who gains political advantage

Problem
Foreign aid can strengthen leaders without helping citizens.

Action
Examine how aid changes the incentives of leaders and their supporters.

Outcome
The real effects of aid become clearer.

Chapter: Foreign Aid

Practice 8: Address major grievances before opposition unites

Problem
Public dissatisfaction can grow into organized resistance.

Action
Respond to serious complaints before large groups mobilize against you.

Outcome
The risk of revolt decreases.

Chapter: The People in Revolt

Episode 3

Practice 9: Analyze war and peace through leader incentives

Problem
National interests do not always drive international decisions.

Action
Assess how war or peace affects a leader’s political survival.

Outcome
International behavior becomes more predictable.

Chapter: War, Peace, and World Order

Practice 10: Require leaders to depend on broad public support

Problem
Democratic systems weaken when leaders can rely on narrow groups.

Action
Strengthen institutions that hold leaders accountable to many voters.

Outcome
Government becomes more responsive to citizens.

Chapter: Is Democracy Fragile?

Practice 11: Expand the number of people whose support matters

Problem
Leaders serve narrow interests when too few people influence power.

Action
Increase participation and competition in the selection of leaders.

Outcome
Public interests receive greater attention.

Chapter: What Is to Be Done?