Problem
The future cannot be predicted with confidence.
Action
Study recurring patterns in history before making important decisions.
Outcome
You make better decisions under uncertainty.
Chapter: Hanging by a Thread: If you know where we’ve been, you realize we have no idea where we’re going.
Problem
The biggest risks often appear without warning.
Action
Keep extra time, money, or capacity to handle unexpected events.
Outcome
You become more resilient to surprises.
Chapter: Risk Is What You Don’t See: We are very good at predicting the future, except for the surprises - which tend to be all that matter.
Problem
Unrealistic expectations create unnecessary disappointment.
Action
Set modest expectations before judging outcomes.
Outcome
You appreciate progress more consistently.
Chapter: Expectations and Reality: The first rule of happiness is low expectations.
Problem
People with unusual strengths also have unusual weaknesses.
Action
Evaluate people by their whole character rather than a single quality.
Outcome
You build more realistic relationships.
Chapter: Wild Minds: People who think about the world in unique ways you like also think about the world in unique ways you won’t like.
Problem
Confidence is often mistaken for accuracy.
Action
Look for evidence before accepting confident claims.
Outcome
You make more reliable decisions.
Chapter: Wild Numbers: People don’t want accuracy. They want certainty.
Problem
A compelling story can hide weak evidence.
Action
Verify that the facts support the story.
Outcome
You become less vulnerable to poor judgment.
Chapter: Best Story Wins: Stories are always more powerful than statistics.
Problem
Many important forces cannot be measured directly.
Action
Consider human behavior alongside measurable facts.
Outcome
You understand situations more completely.
Chapter: Does Not Compute: The world is driven by forces that cannot be measured.
Problem
Long periods of success encourage careless behavior.
Action
Maintain the same limits and standards during good times.
Outcome
You reduce avoidable mistakes.
Chapter: Calm Plants the Seeds of Crazy: Crazy doesn’t mean broken. Crazy is normal; beyond the point of crazy is normal.
Problem
Growing too quickly can destroy a good idea.
Action
Expand only as fast as you can manage well.
Outcome
You build stronger long-term results.
Chapter: Too Much, Too Soon, Too Fast: A good idea on steroids quickly becomes a terrible idea.
Problem
Comfort can reduce attention to what matters most.
Action
Focus on your highest priority during stressful periods.
Outcome
You make better use of difficult situations.
Chapter: When the Magic Happens: Stress focuses your attention in ways that good times can’t.
Problem
One major mistake can erase years of steady progress.
Action
Avoid decisions that could permanently damage trust or stability.
Outcome
You preserve long-term growth.
Chapter: Overnight Tragedies and Long-Term Miracles: Good news comes from compounding, which always takes time, but bad news comes from a loss in confidence or a catastrophic error that can occur in a blink of an eye.
Problem
Small improvements are easy to overlook.
Action
Make one useful improvement regularly.
Outcome
You achieve meaningful progress through compounding.
Chapter: Tiny and Magnificent: When little things compound into extraordinary things.
Problem
One-sided thinking weakens decision-making.
Action
Plan for success while preparing for setbacks.
Outcome
You make more balanced decisions.
Chapter: Elation and Despair: Progress requires optimism and pessimism to coexist.
Problem
Pursuing perfection slows progress.
Action
Accept small flaws that do not prevent success.
Outcome
You complete more valuable work.
Chapter: Casualties of Perfection: There is a huge advantage to being a little imperfect.
Problem
Meaningful goals require effort that feels uncomfortable.
Action
Keep working even when the process is difficult.
Outcome
You achieve results that require persistence.
Chapter: It’s Supposed to Be Hard: Everything worth pursuing comes with a little pain. The trick is not minding that it hurts.
Problem
Every competitive advantage weakens over time.
Action
Continue improving your skills and methods after success.
Outcome
You stay effective as conditions change.
Chapter: Keep Running: Most competitive advantages eventually die.
Problem
People often underestimate future progress.
Action
Regularly explore how new technology could improve your work and life.
Outcome
You recognize valuable opportunities earlier.
Chapter: The Wonders of the Future: It always feels like we’re falling behind, and it’s easy to discount the potential of new technology.
Problem
Many attractive opportunities require more work than they appear to require.
Action
Estimate the ongoing effort before making a commitment.
Outcome
You choose opportunities more wisely.
Chapter: Harder Than It Looks and Not as Fun as It Seems: “The grass is always greener on the side that’s fertilized with bullshit.”
Problem
People usually respond to rewards more than intentions.
Action
Identify the incentives behind important decisions.
Outcome
You better understand why people behave as they do.
Chapter: Incentives: The Most Powerful Force in the World: When the incentives are crazy, the behavior is crazy. People can be led to justify and defend nearly anything.
Problem
Advice is less convincing than personal experience.
Action
Test important ideas yourself whenever possible.
Outcome
You develop stronger judgment.
Chapter: Now You Get It: Nothing is more persuasive than what you’ve experienced firsthand.
Problem
Long-term success depends on consistent commitment.
Action
Keep making decisions that support your long-term objective.
Outcome
You increase your chances of lasting success.
Chapter: Time Horizons: Saying “I’m in it for the long run” is a bit like standing at the base of Mount Everest, pointing to the top, and saying, “That’s where I’m heading.” Well, that’s nice. Now comes the test.
Problem
Extra difficulty does not create better results.
Action
Use the simplest approach that solves the problem.
Outcome
You achieve results with less wasted effort.
Chapter: Trying Too Hard: There are no points awarded for difficulty.
Problem
People’s beliefs are shaped by different life experiences.
Action
Ask how someone’s experiences influenced their views before judging them.
Outcome
You gain a deeper understanding of others.
Chapter: Wounds Heal, Scars Last: What have you experienced that I haven’t that makes you believe what you do? And would I think about the world like you do if I experienced what you have?