Problem
War is shaped by more than military events.
Action
Study the political, social, economic, and historical context before making decisions.
Outcome
Your judgment becomes more accurate.
Chapter: War and Peace - The Contexts of War Are All Important
Problem
Military action without a clear political purpose loses direction.
Action
Define the desired peace before deciding to use force.
Outcome
Military action better supports political goals.
Chapter: War and Peace - War Is About Peace, and Peace Can Be About War
Problem
Winning a war does not automatically create lasting peace.
Action
Prepare postwar political and security arrangements before the conflict ends.
Outcome
The transition to peace becomes more stable.
Chapter: War and Peace - It Is More Difficult to Make Peace than It Is to Make War
Problem
War always creates unexpected effects.
Action
Evaluate likely indirect consequences before taking action.
Outcome
You are better prepared for future challenges.
Chapter: War and Peace - War Works! But Always Has Unintended and Unanticipated Consequences
Problem
Peace does not last without continuous support.
Action
Build and sustain institutions that preserve order and security.
Outcome
Stability becomes more durable.
Chapter: War and Peace - Peace and Order Are Not Self-Enforcing, They Have to Be Organized and Kept by Somebody
Problem
Culture strongly influences conflict and cooperation.
Action
Study the beliefs and values of the societies involved.
Outcome
Your plans fit the real environment.
Chapter: War and Peace - Not Only Polities, but Societies and Their Cultures Make War and Peace
Problem
Reason alone does not determine events in war.
Action
Build flexibility into plans for emotion, chance, and uncertainty.
Outcome
Plans remain effective under pressure.
Chapter: War and Peace - Reason Reigns Over War, but Passion and Chance Threaten to Rule
Problem
Combat alone does not explain war.
Action
Assess political, economic, social, and military factors together.
Outcome
Your understanding becomes more complete.
Chapter: War and Peace - There Is More to War than Warfare
Problem
Unrealistic policy creates unattainable military demands.
Action
Set political goals that align with what military force can achieve.
Outcome
Strategy becomes more practical.
Chapter: War and Peace - Policy Is King, but Often Is Ignorant of the Nature and Character of War
Problem
No war has guaranteed outcomes.
Action
Evaluate risks and prepare alternatives before acting.
Outcome
You make more resilient decisions.
Chapter: War and Peace - War Is Always a Gamble
Problem
Strategic judgment weakens without regular study.
Action
Study strategy throughout your career.
Outcome
Decision-making improves over time.
Chapter: Strategy - Knowledge of Strategy Is Vital: The Flame of Strategic Understanding Has to Be Kept Lit
Problem
Strategy fails when objectives exceed resources.
Action
Align strategic goals with available capabilities.
Outcome
Plans become more achievable.
Chapter: Strategy - Strategy Is More Difficult than Policy or Tactics
Problem
Weakness at any level can cause failure.
Action
Review policy, strategy, and tactics as a single, connected system.
Outcome
Overall performance improves.
Chapter: Strategy - Bad Strategy Kills, but So Also Do Bad Policy and Tactics
Problem
Ignoring proven principles leads to repeated mistakes.
Action
Compare new strategic ideas with classic theory.
Outcome
Your judgment becomes more reliable.
Chapter: Strategy - If Thucydides, Sun-tzu, and Clausewitz Did Not Say It, It Probably Is Not Worth Saying
Problem
Popular strategic ideas often lose value over time.
Action
Evaluate new concepts against historical evidence before adopting them.
Outcome
Your thinking remains grounded.
Chapter: Strategy - The Strategic “Concept du Jour” Will Be Tomorrow’s Stale Left-Over, Until It Is Rediscovered, Recycled, and Revealed as a New Truth
Problem
The enemy actively changes the situation.
Action
Include likely enemy reactions in every plan.
Outcome
Plans become more realistic.
Chapter: Strategy - The Enemy Too Has a Vote
Problem
Lost time reduces strategic options.
Action
Act before favorable opportunities disappear.
Outcome
You preserve greater freedom of action.
Chapter: Strategy - Time Is the Least Forgiving Dimension of Strategy
Problem
Unexpected obstacles disrupt every operation.
Action
Build flexibility and contingency plans into every operation.
Outcome
Execution remains more effective.
Chapter: Strategy - Friction Is Unavoidable, but Need Not Be Fatal
Problem
Geography shapes strategic possibilities.
Action
Adapt plans to terrain, distance, and location.
Outcome
Operations become more effective.
Chapter: Strategy - All Strategy Is Geostrategy: Geography Is Fundamental
Problem
Military force alone cannot achieve every objective.
Action
Coordinate military action with political, diplomatic, and economic efforts.
Outcome
National objectives become more attainable.
Chapter: Strategy - Strategy Is Not Wholly Military
Problem
Impossible goals waste valuable resources.
Action
Reject objectives that cannot realistically be achieved.
Outcome
Effort stays focused on attainable results.
Chapter: Strategy - The Impossible Is Impossible; It Is a Condition, Not a Problem for Which a Solution Has Yet to Be Found
Problem
Military effectiveness depends most on people.
Action
Develop leadership, discipline, and professional skill.
Outcome
Capability improves.
Chapter: Military Power and Warfare - People Matter Most
Problem
Weak military capability reduces political influence.
Action
Maintain ready and credible military forces.
Outcome
Deterrence becomes stronger.
Chapter: Military Power and Warfare - Military Power Is Trumps in Politics
Problem
Appearances cannot prove military effectiveness.
Action
Evaluate military quality through operational results.
Outcome
Assessments become more accurate.
Chapter: Military Power and Warfare - Military Excellence Can Only Be Verified by Performance in War
Problem
Military skill alone cannot achieve national goals.
Action
Align military operations with strategic objectives.
Outcome
Military success gains lasting value.
Chapter: Military Power and Warfare - Military Excellence Cannot Guarantee Strategic Success
Problem
Winning battles does not guarantee strategic success.
Action
Judge military victories by their contribution to political objectives.
Outcome
Military effort better supports national goals.
Chapter: Military Power and Warfare - Victory in Battle Does Not Ensure Strategic or Political Success, but Defeat All but Guarantees Failure
Problem
The enemy is more than a collection of targets.
Action
Study enemy intentions and capabilities.
Outcome
Plans become more effective.
Chapter: Military Power and Warfare - There Is More to War than Firepower: The Enemy Is Not Just a Target Set
Problem
Weak logistics limit strategic opportunity.
Action
Strengthen supply and transportation systems before increasing commitments.
Outcome
Operations become more sustainable.
Chapter: Military Power and Warfare - Logistics Is the Arbiter of Strategic Opportunity
Problem
Periods of security eventually end.
Action
Maintain readiness before new threats emerge.
Outcome
Future crises become easier to manage.
Chapter: Security and Insecurity - Bad Times Return
Problem
Hostile actors never disappear completely.
Action
Continuously monitor and prepare for potential threats.
Outcome
Security improves.
Chapter: Security and Insecurity - There Are Always Thugs, Villains, Rogues, and Fools Out There, as Well Some in Here, Who Mean Us Harm
Problem
Rare threats can have severe consequences.
Action
Develop contingency plans for high-impact scenarios.
Outcome
Response capability improves.
Chapter: Security and Insecurity - Superthreats Do Appear
Problem
Careless decisions create unnecessary risk.
Action
Evaluate long-term consequences before acting.
Outcome
Decisions become more reliable.
Chapter: Security and Insecurity - Prudence Is the Supreme Virtue in Statecraft and Strategy
Problem
Good intentions do not guarantee good outcomes.
Action
Evaluate expected results before making policy decisions.
Outcome
Policies become more effective.
Chapter: Security and Insecurity - Strategic History Punishes Good Intentions
Problem
Security investments cannot guarantee future safety.
Action
Make defense spending decisions with realistic expectations.
Outcome
Resources are allocated more wisely.
Chapter: Security and Insecurity - Defense Costs Are Certain, but Security Benefits Are Uncertain and Arguable
Problem
Agreements alone cannot control weapons.
Action
Back arms control with trust, enforcement, and lasting political support.
Outcome
Limits become more sustainable.
Chapter: Security and Insecurity - Arms Can Be Controlled, but Not by Arms Control
Problem
Strategic challenges often recur over time.
Action
Study historical patterns before making decisions.
Outcome
Future risks become easier to recognize.
Chapter: History and the Future - Nothing of Real Importance Changes: Modern History Is Not Modern
Problem
History can be used to justify weak conclusions.
Action
Compare multiple historical examples before drawing lessons.
Outcome
Your analysis becomes more balanced.
Chapter: History and the Future - History Can Be Misused to “Prove” Anything, but It Is All That We Have as a Guide to the Future
Problem
The future cannot be predicted accurately.
Action
Review and adjust plans as conditions change.
Outcome
You respond more effectively to uncertainty.
Chapter: History and the Future - The Future Is Not Foreseeable: Nothing Dates So Rapidly as Today’s Tomorrow
Problem
Unexpected events cannot be prevented.
Action
Prepare systems that recover quickly from surprise.
Outcome
Disruption has less impact.
Chapter: History and the Future - Surprise Is Unavoidable, but Its Effect Is Not
Problem
Some losses cannot be prevented.
Action
Make decisions with the possibility of tragedy in mind.
Outcome
Judgment remains steady during hardship.
Chapter: History and the Future - Tragedy Happens