Intrenion

Books as Frameworks: Problem-Solving & Decision-Making

Table of Contents

Smart Choices (John S. Hammond et al.)

  1. Problem: How to define your decision problem to solve the right problem
  2. Objectives: How to clarify what you’re really trying to achieve with your decision
  3. Alternatives: How to make smarter choices by creating better alternatives to choose from
  4. Consequences: How to describe how well each alternative meets your objectives
  5. Tradeoffs: How to make tough compromises when you can’t achieve all your objectives at once
  6. Uncertainty: How to think about and act on uncertainties affecting your decision
  7. Risk Tolerance: How to account for your appetite for risk
  8. Linked Decisions: How to plan ahead by effectively coordinating current and future decisions
  9. Psychological Traps: How to avoid some of the tricks your mind can play on you when you’re deciding
  10. The Wise Decision Maker: How to make smart choices a way of life

The Art of Statistical Thinking (Albert Rutherford et al.)

Definition and Basic Concepts

  1. Sample Versus Population
  2. Descriptive Statistics
  3. Sample Statistics and Population Parameters
  4. Descriptive Statistics for Relative Position
  5. Data Visualization
  6. Comparing Alternative Distributions
  7. Normal Distribution
  8. Checking the Normality of a Distribution
  9. Concluding Remarks

Inferential Statistics

  1. Random (Repeated) Sampling and Sampling Distribution
  2. Understanding the Test Statistic
  3. Effect Size vs. Sample Size
  4. Inferential Statistics
  5. Concluding Remarks

Statistical Thinking

  1. Understanding Uncertainty
  2. Research Design
  3. Alpha, Beta, and Power
  4. Implications to Research with Big Data
  5. Choosing the Level of Significance
  6. A Brief History of Modern Statistics
  7. Concluding Remarks

How Is Statistics Applied in Real Life

  1. Investment Decision
  2. Opinion Polls
  3. Economics Research
  4. Medical Research
  5. Economic and Business Forecasting
  6. Stock Trading and Portfolio Selection
  7. Risk Management
  8. Concluding Remarks

Misinterpretations of Statistics

  1. Illusion of Statistical Significance
  2. Big Data Hubris: Misinterpretation of the Central Limit Theorem
  3. Sampling Bias
  4. Cherry-Picking
  5. Correlation, Not Causation
  6. Statistical Insignificance
  7. Misleading Visualization

The Field Guide to Understanding ‘Human Error’ (Sidney Dekker)

  1. Two Views of ‘Human Error’
  2. Containing Your Reactions to Failure
  3. Doing a ‘Human Error’ Investigation
  4. Explaining the Patterns of Breakdown
  5. Understanding Your Accident Model
  6. Creating an Effective Safety Department
  7. Building a Safety Culture
  8. Abandoning the Fallacy of a Quick Fix